In Part 1 of the boys' prep coaches survey, we focused on the players and teams of this past season. Part 2 looked ahead to next season.
But a large cloud of uncertainty hangs over prep entering this coming season, and that's what Part 3 is focused on.
The CHL ruling.
Beginning last November, CHL players became eligible to play NCAA Division 1 hockey. This means many things.
For starters, NCAA programs have brought in quite a few current CHL players to begin this fall. They have also committed future CHL talent. There are, at least for now, fewer spots in Division 1 college hockey. More on that in a separate story.
But where this could really impact prep is that players now have the option of going to the CHL for junior hockey. Around here, the Quebec Maritimes Junior Hockey League has regional rights to New England players.
The CHL also includes the Ontario Hockey League, which has rights to players from states like New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, and the Western Hockey League.
So, we asked prep coaches what they think the fallout will be. All coaches were granted anonymity.
Will players leave early for the QMJHL?
Prep, along with U16 and U18 teams, already had to deal with the potential of a high-end player departing for the USHL or BCHL before graduating.
The majority of prep coaches polled agreed — players will leave early.
"They've been leaving early for the USHL and BCHL," a coach said. "What would be the difference between leaving for those leagues and the (QMJHL)?"
The difference between the USHL and the QMJHL is that the USHL is considered a higher level of junior hockey. High producers who may not be fully ready for the grind of a USHL season may find success easier to come by in the QMJHL.
What can't be forgotten is the money side of things.
"Some already have," one coach said. "Tough to ask people to pay $80,000 when they could get paid (in the CHL)."
Even in the first months after the ruling, QMJHL scouts were scouting prep games. In June, 37 New Englanders, many of them from prep or future prep players, were taken in the QMJHL Draft.
"The QMJHL has already been aggressive in talking to and recruiting kids around here," a coach said. "Kids and families that want to go 'all-in' will make the jump."
While one coach mentioned this just impacting the "top-tier kids," rising seniors who had big seasons as juniors will be faced with the decision.
"Older prep players will continue to get a lot of pressure from many junior leagues to leave early," another coach said.
SELECT 17 CAMP: 17 uncommitted standout forwards | 12 uncommitted standout defenders
One byproduct of this might be fewer players opting to reclassify, so they'll have the most amount of junior eligibility once they graduate.
"I think you see fewer repeats in prep, which hopefully eliminates the desire to leave early," a coach said.
Some prep coaches brought up reasons for trepidation in going to the QMJHL.
"I just think it's tricky, as a lot of kids are hesitating with going to a French-speaking team," one coach said. "The USHL still stands out as a potentially better proving ground with good depth."
Along with the language barrier posed by some teams, there's also the location element, which can be a drawback for some players.
"Who wants to live in Chicoutimi?" one coach asked of the city that's about 130 miles north of Quebec City. "Halifax and Moncton only have so many spots. It's not a threat. It also doesn't change that 18-year-olds do not help junior teams win hockey games."
And there's always the prevailing sentiment that the average prep family is looking for a blend of hockey with a high-quality education.
"Players who choose the prep school route do so for the education and the opportunities that a diploma from one of these prestigious schools will open up later in life," another coach said.
Are you changing the way you recruit Canadian players?
For years, Canadian players opted for the prep school route to play college hockey. They could play prep in New England and hope to be good enough to play in the USHL and BCHL, and score a commitment to a Division 1 program.
That's not necessary anymore.
If they want to play Division 1 college hockey, they can stay in Canada, play locally and suit up for whichever CHL league has the rights to them.
"I won't be making a trip to Toronto this year," one coach said. "They all want to stay now and play in the OHL."
Players leaving for the QMJHL early may cause prep to get younger. This might also be true for bringing in Canadian players.
"I can't go and get the repeat Grade 11s anymore," a coach said. "They will have offers to play in the QMJHL because those franchises want players for three years. Looking for true-to-grade, younger Canadians will be harder."
MORE SURVEY: A look at this past season | Predicting next season
One coach, however, mentioned that he's been having success with younger players.
"We are doing very well with '09 Canadians as it is likely that major junior leagues are going older as more Americans come in to play," that coach said.
Another coach mentioned they're not having Canadian players reclassify. Still, it's important to remember this won't impact all teams. Day schools don't typically have players from outside of driving distance.
