When the NHL Central Scouting Final 2023 Draft Prospect Rankings were unveiled earlier this week, there weren’t a lot of surprises, especially when it comes to the New England talent pool.
USA Hockey NTDP forwards and Boston College commits Will Smith (Lexington, Mass.) and Ryan Leonard (Amherst, Mass.) both finished inside the top five. Factoring in the European skaters, both are projected to be top 10 picks in the 2023 NHL draft this June in Nashville.
The 2023 draft is top-heavy for the local pool. After Smith and Leonard, every other prospect from New England has varying degrees of appetite among NHL scouts. While other locals will surely be picked, you could find a handful of NHL scouts unwilling to stamp all but Smith and Leonard.
NHL Central Scouting holds Avon Old Farms left wing and Northeastern commit Joe Connor (Amherst, N.H.) in the highest of regards when it comes to local players who skated in the prep school circuit in 2022-23. Connor has improved his stock by heading out to the USHL to finish the season with Muskegon. In 12 games, Connor picked up a goal and five assists.
Similarly, Ethan Gardula (Princeton, Mass.) saw his ranking jump 38 spots from the midterm, in part due to his willingness to go to Sioux City to play USHL games. In nine games with the Musketeers, Gardula has tallied two goals and three assists.
On the contrary, Dexter Southfield defenseman and Harvard commit Sean Keohane's (Milton, Mass.) ranking fell 50 spots between the midterm and final list.
The three locals weren’t the only players with ties to the region who saw a jump or decline from the midterm. Northeastern commit Eli Sebastian of the USHL’s Green Bay Gamblers went from unranked at the midterm to 109th among North American skaters in the final rankings. New Hampshire commit Ryan Conmy of Sioux City went from 211th to 112th. Both have had productive seasons in the USHL, the only Tier 1 junior league in the United States.
Who are the value picks?
NHL Central Scouting is a fun tool for fans and media, but the service’s rankings must be taken with a grain of salt. There are far more players ranked between the four categories – North American skaters and goaltenders and European skaters and goaltenders – than will hear their names called in June.
NHL Central Scouting carries varied weight among league teams. Scouts from each organization are usually tasked with getting views on each player on NHL Central Scouting. However, each team can be expected to view certain players significantly differently than NHL Central Scouting.
Based on the NHL Central Scouting Final Rankings, there are some value picks. A number of first-year eligible players fell in the rankings because of a lack of production or ice time in their rookie seasons in the USHL. A great past example of a player who should have been selected, but wasn’t in his first year of eligibility is Carter Mazur. After two seasons at Denver, he recently signed with the Detroit Red Wings and has scored three goals and three assists in his first six games with the organization’s AHL team, the Grand Rapids Griffins.
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Coming off a successful bantam and midget career with Little Caesars, Mazur had a lackluster rookie season, in terms of production, with Tri-City in 2019-20. He went undrafted as a result. A year later, he scored 20 goals and 24 assists in 47 games and was selected by Detroit in the third round.
What’s the message here? If you can find the next Mazur in his first year of eligibility, take a flier on him in the sixth or seventh round. Waterloo Black Hawks center and North Dakota commit David Klee is a player who comes to mind this season. He may or may not get drafted, but he should be plucked off the board, despite putting up just so-so numbers.
Boston University recruit and Youngstown Phantoms center Brandon Svoboda will most certainly get picked. Coming in at 66th among North American skaters, he enters the final weekend of the regular season with 25 points but has done so with slightly less ice time than many other highly-ranked players, due to talented centers ahead of him. Teams would be wise to not wait too long before picking the Pittsburgh Penguins Elite alum.
Merrimack sophomore center Matt Copponi (Mansfield, Mass.) has rightfully earned his way into the top 100 among North American skaters. He’s the only '03 college player listed. Another Hockey East player in the birth year could be picked, despite not being ranked by NHL Central Scouting. Providence freshman Bennett Schimek scored 11 goals and had a solid second half for the Friars.
