Statistics can often be telling. One important statistic when it comes to determining the likelihood of a team winning or not winning the NCAA men's ice hockey championship is save percentage.
With bigger equipment and more advanced teaching methods, the goaltending position has become an even more important position in the modern era. It’s driven up save percentage statistics.
It’s why four teams’ chances of winning the NCAA championship already seem to be doomed barring a significant turnaround in the play of their goaltending.
Since 2000, only won team has won the NCAA championship with its starting goaltender possessing a save percentage under .910. Minnesota won the 2003 NCAA Championship with Travis Weber posting a .902 save percentage.
Save percentages for the starting goaltenders of NCAA champions since 2000
2018 Hunter Shepard Minnesota Duluth .925
2017 Tanner Jaillet Denver .929
2016 Cam Johnson North Dakota .935
2015 Jon Gillies Providence .930
2014 Colin Stevens Union .929
2013 Jeff Malcolm Yale .919
2012 Parker Milner Boston College .937
2011 Kenny Reiter Minnesota Duluth .914
2010 John Muse Boston College .910
2009 Kieran Milan Boston University .921
2008 John Muse Boston College .921
2007 Brian Elliott Wisconsin .923
2006 Jeff Lerg Michigan State .928
2005 Peter Mannino Denver .927
2004 Adam Berkhoel Denver .918
2003 Travis Weber Minnesota .902
2002 Adam Hauser Minnesota .913
2001 Scott Clemmensen Boston College .914
2000 Karl Goehring North Dakota .927
The past five champions haven’t had a starting goaltender finish the season with less than a .925 save percentage. North Dakota’s Cam Johnson set the benchmark in 2016 with a .935 save percentage, but Providence College’s Jon Gillies (South Portland, Maine) had an impressive .930 save percentage when the Friars won the NCAA championship in 2015.
Taking a look at the top 12 teams in the Pairwise Rankings (as of Monday, Jan. 14, 2018), there are two very prominent teams whose starting goaltender has a save percentage under .910. Sophomore David Hrenak, the starter for No. 2 St. Cloud State, has a .902 save percentage, while senior Hayden Hawkey of No. 11 Providence has a .907 save percentage.
Save percentages of goaltenders for the top 12 teams in the Pairwise
1 Matt Murray Massachusetts .933
2 Devin Cooley/Filip Larsson Denver .929
3 David Hrenak St. Cloud State .902
4 Hunter Shepard Minnesota Duluth .916
5 Tommy Napier Ohio State .945
6 Andrew Shortridge Quinnipiac .961
7 Dryden McKay Minnesota State .919
8 Cayden Primeau Northeastern .923
9 Trevor Gorsuch Western Michigan .928
10 Ryan Bednard Bowling Green .929
11 Hayden Hawkey Providence .907
12 Joey Daccord Arizona State .930
Statistically speaking, it will be very hard for either the Huskies or the Friars to win the NCAA championship. Having seen both teams in person, there is no doubt that both teams have the skaters on defense and up front to win a title.
Just down I-91, Quinnipiac junior Andrew Shortridge has overtaken sophomore and NHL draft pick Keith Pettruzzelli for the top spot in the Bobcats’ crease. He has a gaudy .961 save percentage.
Who is looking strong to win a title? Sophomore Matt Murray has a .933 save percentage as he backstops No. 1 UMass. Both Denver goaltenders, sophomore Devin Cooley and freshman Filip Larsson, have a .929 save percentage.
All three of these teams have very good, puck-moving defenses, which make them favorites to win the title. In addition to strong goaltending, a solid defense is equally imperative to winning a title over the past few seasons.
Last year, UMD was led on defense by three players who competed for USA Hockey at the 2018 IIHF World Junior Championship. Scott Perunovich led the team in scoring en route to being selected by the St. Louis Blues at the 2018 NHL Draft. Fellow rookies Mikey Anderson and Dylan Samberg were also vital in the championship run.
Denver, the 2017 NCAA champion, was led by Hobey Baker Award winner Will Butcher, who now plays for the New Jersey Devils.
Perhaps most impressive, and most telling, North Dakota won in 2016 with four defensemen who have played significant time in the NHL since then.
So, the facts are telling. When looking to fill out your brackets in just over two months, pick a team with a stout defense and a goaltender whose save percentage is over .920.
