Let the fun begin. May the best team win. The New England boys prep hockey Elite 8 tournament gets underway with quarterfinal action on Wednesday. No. 1 Dexter Southfield hosts No. 8 Avon Old Farms, No. 2 St. Mark's takes on rival No. 7 Belmont Hill, No. 3 Salisbury clashes with No. 6 Kimball Union...
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The New England boys prep hockey Elite 8 tournament gets underway with quarterfinal action on Wednesday.
No. 1 Dexter Southfield hosts No. 8 Avon Old Farms, No. 2 St. Mark's takes on rival No. 7 Belmont Hill, No. 3 Salisbury clashes with No. 6 Kimball Union and No. 4 St. Sebastian's faces No. 5 Hotchkiss.
That's quite the field.
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We've broken down each team in a separate story. But before the puck drops on all four games, there's only one thing left to do: make predictions.
I went 13-8 last season across the Elite 8, Large School and Small School fields, and put up the same record the year before. I'm hoping to boost those numbers this year.
Let's dive into my predictions.
No. 1 Dexter Southfield vs. No. 8 Avon Old Farms
The more you look at this matchup, the more fascinating it gets.
For two months, Dexter and Avon Old Farms were two of the top teams in the region. If you told me in January that these two teams would clash in March, I'd have assumed it was the championship. Instead, the Winged Beavers went 1-6-2 down the stretch, falling from No. 1 in the Elite 8 to the final spot.
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That doesn't mean they should be written off.
Avon's strength is, by far, its goaltending and defense. Senior Anthony Palmer (Lynnfield, Mass.) has a 2.04 goals-against average and a .934 save percentage. He has been a top starter in prep for three seasons. He has experience. In front of him is a defensive core that includes Yale commit Matthew Koch, RPI commit Ryan Hecker and Division 1 prospect Max Yakub, as well as juniors Brody Latkin and Jake Power.
That is a defense against Dexter's firepower. But is it enough?
This one has upset potential in spades. Belmont Hill beat St. Mark's, 3-1, on Jan. 21. The Lions have also struggled in the playoffs in recent seasons, too, falling to Rivers in the Elite 8 quarterfinals last season, Pomfret in the Small School quarterfinals in 2023-24 and New Hampton in the Small School quarterfinals in 2022-23.
Wednesday's matchup will come down to whether or not Belmont Hill can shut down St. Mark's big guns in senior forward Evan Nee (Arlington, Mass.), and junior forwards Caiden Pellegrino (Uxbridge, Mass.) and Will Manchuso (Concord, Mass.). Those three, along with a plethora of depth scorers, led St. Mark's to be the No. 1 offense in the region.
Belmont Hill senior centers Patrick Woods (Charlestown, Mass.) and Matthew Carolan (Stowe, Mass.) are hard to play against and are responsible in their own zone. Senior defensemen Evan Jones (Arlington, Mass.) and Louis Marobella (Sudbury, Mass.) will be deployed in tough minutes against the Lions' big guns. Those two are highly effective at doing so. And whether head coach Brian Phinney goes with senior JJ Thibodeau (Waltham, Mass.) or junior Ethan Bauer (Belmont, Mass.) in net, both give the Sextants a chance.
So, what wins out?
The year the Lions are on the cover of our November/December magazine is the year they make it past the quarters.
This is an incredible heavyweight clash in the quarterfinals. Kimball Union ranks third in goals for (142), while Salisbury ranks sixth (132). Kimball Union has also given up four fewer goals (58) than Salisbury (62). But the Crimson Knights have a slight edge in strength of schedule.
Bottom line: This is an extremely close 3v6 matchup.
The goalies are a bit of a wash. Kimball Union's Cam Ingram and Salisbury's Jordan Rittenberg are both very good goalies. On defense, Kimball Union's crew is better at moving pucks and creating offense, while Salisbury's core has the edge in physicality and the ability to shut top guys down.
Kimball Union will undoubtedly be motivated after falling to Holderness in the Lakes Region championship. The Wildcats also have the best player in this game with senior forward Josh Phillips. Those are two things the Wildcats have going for them.
But I like Salisbury's forward depth and physicality more, and in a game like this one, that's going to matter. KUA head coach Tim Whitehead and Salisbury head coach Andrew Will are both extraordinary behind the bench. Both teams will be structured and ready for what the other brings.
It's going to come down to a bounce here and a bounce there from further down the lineup.
I have gone back and forth with this game since late Saturday night. I should close my eyes, flip a coin and pick a winner that way.
Obviously, I'm not going to do that. Although when I did do that and put St. Sebastian's as heads (home team) and Hotchkiss as tails, I got Hotchkiss. Take that for what you will.
Both teams' best asset is their goalies. St. Sebastian's boasts junior Tommy Saulnier (Medfield, Mass.), while Hotchkiss has junior Neilan Johnson. Saulnier ranks second among goalies with over 1,000 minutes played in save percentage (.944) and Johnson ranks third (.942). Johnson, however, holds a slight advantage in GAA (1.72) against Saulnier (1.78).
This is clearly going to be a low-scoring game. And in a packed Henry T. Lane Arena on Wednesday, both teams will be motivated to be physical.
It will come down to which offense can squeak one more goal through than the other. St. Sebastian's holds the slightest advantage over Hotchkiss in team offense. I'm going with that.
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No. 2 St. Mark's vs. No. 7 Belmont Hill
