With the NCAA Men’s Ice Hockey Tournament a little over a month away, it’s getting to that point of the college hockey season where teams start pouring over the all-important Pairwise Rankings and contemplating their postseason future.
While there is still a month for things to change, the NCAA Tournament picture is starting to look bleak for New England teams. If the tournament started today, only four teams from New England would make the field of 16. Having 25 percent of the teams in the tournament might not seem so bad, but it’s been a rough year for the three predominantly eastern conference teams.
Why has it been a down year for Hockey East and ECAC Hockey? Let’s start with the fact that eight ECAC Hockey teams didn’t compete in 2020-21, so there was that to overcome. As a result of that, a number of players bolted from those eight programs for greener pastures elsewhere. It impacted recruiting, as well.
The six Ivy League teams in ECAC Hockey aren’t allowed to have graduate transfers, which has boosted a number of teams across the country with all players given a fifth year of eligibility due to the coronavirus.
Eight ECAC Hockey teams are in the bottom 20 of the Pairwise, which hurts the teams at the top of the conference. Quinnipiac and Clarkson, both in the field if it started today, are negatively impacted because of playing so many teams low in the rankings.
In Hockey East, Boston College and Boston University were hit hard by early departures to the pros. In fairness, a few Hockey East programs, UMass Lowell, Boston University, Merrimack and UConn, are on the cusp of making the tournament, should teams ahead slip.
Regardless, it’s unusual for just two ECAC Hockey and two Hockey East programs to make the tournament. Both leagues have been accustomed to having a greater representation. Of course, there’s time for change, but it’s not an optimistic outlook.
Here’s my current forecast for how the NCAA Tournament would look if it started today. I have taken the liberty of awarding Atlantic Hockey’s automatic bid to American International, the top team in that league’s standings. This prognostication is assuming there are no upset winners in the four major conferences.
I have kept all teams within their bands, one through four. I’ve tried to maintain bracket integrity while helping attendance. With my bracket, all regionals should do well attendance-wise. Minnesota, North Dakota and Clarkson will provide a boost in Albany. Quinnipiac and UMass give two somewhat local teams in Worcester. The Allentown regional having Michigan and Ohio State will help while Denver being the top seed in Loveland will give that site a jolt.
Albany Regional (N.Y.)
1. Western Michigan
2. Minnesota
3. North Dakota
4. Clarkson
Worcester Regional (Mass.)
1. Minnesota State
2. Quinnipiac
3. UMass
4. Northeastern
Allentown Regional (Pa.)
1. Michigan
2. St. Cloud State
3. Ohio State
4. American International
Loveland Regional (Colo.)
1. Denver
2. Minnesota Duluth
3. Michigan Tech
4. Notre Dame
