The Jack Eichel trade watch appears to be at an end, with NHL insider Darren Dreger confirming Andrew Peters' initial report that the Buffalo Sabres have traded their injured and disgruntled franchise center to the Vegas Golden Knights.
The blockbuster deal that Dreger confirmed is pending a trade call with the NHL early Thursday morning, involves a package of assets that on paper don’t measure up to the North Chelmsford, Mass. native and former Boston University star. Eichel, however, is not healthy at this time and will require a procedure to address his injured back.
All of that uncertainty surrounding his longer-term future, not to mention his $10 million cap hit and a no-movement clause (NMC) that kicked in for the 2022-23 season, once again forced Sabres GM Kevyn Adams into dealing from a position of weakness when it comes to a prime return for a top forward.
Per reports, the Sabres are sending Eichel and a third-round pick out West and receiving NHL veteran (and former Boston College forward) Alex Tuch, top prospect Peyton Krebs, Vegas’ first-round pick in 2022 (top-10 protected), and a second-round pick in 2023.
Pending trade call, The @BuffaloSabres trade Jack Eichel and a 2023 3rd round pick, to the @GoldenKnights for Peyton Krebs, Alex Tuch, a 1st in 2022 and a 3rd in 2023.
— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) November 4, 2021
On paper, that is not near enough of a return for the 2015 second overall selection who has 355 points in his first 375 NHL games. However, the circumstances and reality made it a situation where the Sabres had to take what they could get and strike a deal with an extremely limited pool of teams who could pull off the challenge of fitting Eichel’s salary (no retention) into their cap situation, while also giving up the kinds of assets the Sabres needed to recoup. This trade helps both teams.
Amidst rumors of a Calgary Flames trade offer that involved Matthew Tkachuk put out by former NHL player and current NHL Network analyst Kevin Weekes Wednesday evening, the Vegas deal likely came together simultaneously when Calgary ultimately was unable to make it work. While the rumored Flames deal sounds like a better return for Buffalo, and we don’t know what the sticking points were, or how accurate the framework was, Vegas is sending some intriguing pieces to the beleaguered Sabres, the centerpiece being the 20-year-old Krebs, who was the 17th overall selection in 2019 and has developed into the organization’s top prospect since.
For Eichel, he goes to a winning organization and will be able to get the medical treatment (disc replacement) he needs in order to return to action. When that will be is anyone’s guess at this point and more will come to light as the trade details come out and the teams become more comfortable discussing the situation openly. Various reports are saying a possible 2-4-month timetable, which puts Eichel in play for a return in time for the 2022 NHL postseason at the latest, but sometime in January if the eight-week recovery timetable happens. After meeting with media in the post-trade presser, Vegas GM Kelly McCrimmon had a different take on the matter.
https://twitter.com/drosennhl/status/1456281824267804677?s=20
Vegas will have to wait for Eichel, but with the LTIR exemption on their cap figure, McCrimmon has ample time to make the adjustments needed to welcome the former Sabre to a much more potent situation in the sands of Nevada and bright lights of that state’s NHL city.
Analysis
Who won the trade?
The old adage that the team getting the best player wins the trade holds true here, but for Vegas, they won’t realize that return for months. Even when Eichel returns to action, there is no certainty that he will be 100 percent back to the player he was before, but modern medical technology makes that a risk his new team was comfortable with taking.
Eichel joins injured veteran Max Pacioretty (New Canaan, Conn.) on long-term injured reserve for Vegas, while Tuch (also on LTIR) comes off the books and over to the Sabres.
In the end, in the immediate aftermath, it's about Eichel. He just turned 25 last week and assuming he can return to form, gives his new club an electrifying scoring presence and top center for the next half decade. Getting out of the spotlight in Buffalo as the franchise cornerstone and going to the brighter lights of Vegas but to a team where he fits into more of a cohesive machine will be a big benefit, and we could see Eichel hit the century mark in points after a career-best 82 points in 2019. With his size, speed, ferocious shot and natural scoring instincts, Eichel’s lethality will be maximized with a much better supporting cast around him and the power play will be lethal.
Eichel’s challenge will be to put the past behind him and prove that he can be a winning hockey player in a broader formula for success. With his talent and pedigree, it’s a bet that the Golden Knights are happy to take.
As for Tuch, at 25 years old, he’s a young, viable power forward from nearby Syracuse. His best year was a 20-goal, 52-point campaign for the Knights in 2019, so Buffalo is not getting a top point producer back in Tuch, but he’s been a good complementary player who gives the Sabres size and speed on the wing, with upside as he is only beginning to enter his prime playing years.
Krebs has significant potential as a playmaker who can do it all. His numbers have not borne that out to date, but he’s the key return on this trade that will help Buffalo to move on from the gaping hole in the lineup Eichel’s health and a corrosive relationship with management created. Although drafted closer to pick 20 than 10, Krebs was ranked eighth overall in the independent scouting service Red Line Report 2019 draft guide, cited for “Terrific creativity. Played hard every shift on a bad team,” in the WHL’s Kootenay (now Winnipeg) Ice. With his natural hockey sense and outstanding work ethic, Krebs will not only help the NHL roster win games, but will be good for the club’s culture as well.
He has gone scoreless in 9 NHL games with VGK this season, but the guess here is that he won’t take long to register his first points in Buffalo. Adams told media after the deal was announced in Buffalo that Krebs will start out with the team's AHL affiliate Rochester Americans.
https://twitter.com/pham1717/status/1456279998726230023?s=20
As for the picks, the 2022 and 2023 drafts are currently shaping up to be quality classes with talent and depth at the top and on. The Sabres just finished taking 11 players in 2021, including six selections in the first three rounds, so at some point, the team must start hitting in the draft. The law of averages says that the war chest of talented prospects they’ve chosen will start to hit at some point. Krebs becomes the third first-rounder of 2019 for Buffalo, joining team selections Dylan Cozens (7th) and defenseman Ryan Johnson (31st) to further bolster the talent pool.
One aspect of the first-round pick that is curious is that the selection is top-10 protected. That means if Vegas finishes with a top-10 choice after the draft lottery, then the first-round pick shifts to 2023 and the second-rounder to 2024, regardless of finish. Having said that, the chances of Vegas ending the 2021-22 season in the bottom third of the standings is remote. The injury-ravaged team (Mark Stone and Paciorietty out of action) currently sits only above the expansion Seattle Kraken in the Pacific Division, but there is plenty of time to turn it around, especially if Eichel returns to action closer to the Olympic break.
Why didn’t Buffalo get more?
Adams and Co. were in a tough spot.
Without a salary cap in place or a NMC kicking in that would give Eichel control of his destination next season, he might have been able to extract a better return from other clubs willing to surrender more. However, with Eichel’s health status up in the air, his massive cap hit and that ticking deadline to avoid a similar situation to what Adams went through with Taylor Hall influencing the trade to Boston, something had to give.
One of the bigger wins, if true, is that Buffalo retains no salary in sending Eichel to Buffalo. To have to pay for their former franchise star on top of taking less on the return would have been another kick in the teeth for a sagging NHL franchise.
Krebs is the key to it all from the Sabres’ perspective. He’s been on poor teams, but always brought top effort and a winning attitude. He has the talent and upside to be the new face of the Buffalo franchise and boy, do they need one right now.
When all is said and done, Buffalo did pretty well, even if the immediate reactions are mixed.
The verdict
Now, we wait and see. More details will add clarity, but for now, this is a win for both teams. Vegas is going to get a massive shot in the arm at some point when Eichel makes his return, while Buffalo gets to move on from a saga that dragged on.
Eichel is the best player in the deal, so the expectation is that he’ll make an already excellent VGK squad that much better. We just don’t know when that will be, or what he’ll look like when it happens.
Krebs doesn’t have Eichel’s proven NHL talent, pedigree or his ceiling, but he is going to bring a fresh perspective. It’s not the best return Buffalo could get, but under the circumstances, they have to take it. Tuch is a wild card, but they know what they’ll get from him, and playing closer to home might infuse some life into his career and boost his own numbers. As for the picks, it’s what you do with them that matters.
Vegas has the advantage and the potential for a major casino floor score with Eichel. Buffalo got less sizzle and more steak.
Both teams get to welcome a new era of optimism, but for different reasons.
(This story has been updated to reflect information shared in post-trade press conferences held by both teams)
