Every New England boys prep hockey season flies by. Weren't we just standing and shivering at holiday tournaments, thinking about Christmas plans?
This one has been no different, and it's been one filled with parity. That will continue into the final days of the season.
On Sunday morning, the brackets for all three tournaments will be out. We will know the fields in the Elite 8, Large School and Small School tournaments.
The biggest tournament of the next two days will be the Lakes Region tournament. That will have implications for all three tournaments. More on that in a bit.
As of Thursday morning, here are the current and projected playoff seedings, according to USHR.
Elite 8 tournament
- Current: Dexter Southfield | Projected: Dexter Southfield
- Current: St. Mark's | Projected: St. Mark's
- Current: Salisbury | Projected: Salisbury
- Current: Avon Old Farms | Projected: Kimball Union
- Current: Kimball Union | Projected: St. Sebastian's
- Current: St. Sebastian's | Projected: Avon Old Farms
- Current: Hotchkiss | Projected: Hotchkiss
- Current: Belmont Hill | Projected: Belmont Hill
Large School tournament
- Current: Tabor | Projected: Tabor
- Current: Thayer | Projected: Cushing
- Current: Cushing | Projected: Thayer
- Current: Phillips Andover | Projected: Phillips Andover
- Current: Brunswick | Projected: Brunswick
- Current: St. Paul's | Projected: St. Paul's
- Current: Deerfield | Projected: Deerfield
- Current: Kent | Projected: Milton Academy
Small School tournament
- Current: Holderness | Projected: Holderness
- Current: Winchendon | Projected: Winchendon
- Current: Canterbury | Projected: Canterbury
- Current: Berkshire | Projected: Berkshire
- Current: Rivers | Projected: Rivers
- Current: New Hampton | Projected: New Hampton
- Current: Governor's Academy | Projected: St. George's
- Current: St. George's | Projected: Groton
Here are five storylines to keep an eye on in the final two days of the regular season.
1. The Lakes Region tournament's impact on the postseason
Starting Friday, No. 1 Kimball Union will host No. 4 St. Paul's, while No. 2 New Hampton will host No. 3 Holderness. The Lakes Region was deep this year, as all four teams are fairly secure in the playoff picture.
USHR has the New Hampton-Holderness game in the system and has the Bulls beating the Huskies despite New Hampton winning both matchups this season. Even with that one loss, New Hampton stays as the No. 6 seed in the Small School, while Holderness stays as the No. 1 seed in the Small School.
If that game goes the other way and New Hampton wins, I can't imagine either team experiencing a drastic change in their playoff seeding.
USHR projects Kimball Union to beat St. Paul's, and would likely favor Kimball Union beating either Holderness or New Hampton.
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The only way in which Holderness has a chance of getting into the Elite 8 field is by beating New Hampton and Kimball Union.
2. The rest of the Elite 8 teams
Every team in the Elite 8 hunt still has games. Dexter Southfield is actually projected to tie Brunswick and keep the No. 1 seed. St. Mark's still has BB&N and Groton, so the Lions are projected to win both.
Salisbury, who had a difficult week by splitting a back-to-back with Hotchkiss, has Deerfield on Saturday. Something interesting to watch: those two teams tied at the Flood-Marr tournament. Just keep an eye on that game.
Avon Old Farms has two more games with Pomfret and Loomis Chaffee. While the Winged Beavers are projected to win both, they've been spotty of late, even though they got back on track against Canterbury on Wednesday.
St. Sebastian's has a difficult test with Thayer on Friday night, but is projected to win. Hotchkiss' win over Salisbury puts them in a nice spot for the Elite 8. Just beat Taft on Saturday, and the Bearcats are in.
Belmont Hill's 4-1 victory against Tabor, who looked like a bit of an Elite 8 lock, catapulted the Sextants into the big dance. They just have to beat Westminster on Saturday, which they didn't do last season and fell into the Large School field...where they were eliminated by Westminster.
Tabor's lone game is against Lawrence Academy, so the Seawolves have to hope some teams above them slip up in their final tests to make the Elite 8. Winchendon's final game is Mount St. Charles, so they're in a similar boat, although making the Elite 8 is more bleak for them.
Cushing is 12th in JSPR and only has one game left against Governor's Academy.
Weird things happen, though.
3. The Large School field
The current vs. projected features some movement in the top seven seeds, but I don't think anyone is fully dropping out. Deerfield is the No. 7 seed and is projected to go 1-1-0 against Westminster and Salisbury, which it should do.
The big question is that final seed. Kent or Milton?
Kent's final game is against Choate. The Lions haven't taken on the Boars this season. Milton, who just tied Thayer, projects to win its game against Nobles on Saturday, which would move it into the No. 8 seed, according to USHR.
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What I would be curious about is what if Westminster takes down one (or both) of Deerfield and Belmont Hill? What if Loomis Chaffee beats Avon Old Farms? Those are other potential options for the final seed in the Large School field if things get crazy.
With the top seed, just keep an eye on Belmont Hill-Westminster on Saturday. As I mentioned earlier, that game impacted the seedings quite a bit last season.
4. The Small School field
Holderness, Winchendon and Canterbury are pretty safely the top three seeds. The X-factor would be if Holderness beats New Hampton and Kimball Union, do the Bulls move into the Elite 8?
Berkshire's lone game is against Frederick Gunn, which USHR projects the Bears to win. Rivers, however, is playing with house money: The Red Wings' last game is against Thayer, which USHR projects they'll lose, and they still stay as the No. 5 seed.
Governor's Academy is projected to fall out of the field even though it's currently the No. 7 seed. Head coach Brian McGuirk's team is at Cushing on Saturday. According to USHR projections, if Gov's loses that game and St. George's beats Middlesex and Groton goes 1-1-0 against Middlesex and St. Mark's, Gov's is out.
McGuirk and co. should be rooting hard for Middlesex.
A team to watch with the Small School field is Pomfret. The Griffins have been sliding of late, but are just outside the group. They face Avon and Williston Northampton before Sunday.
5. Can anyone hit 70 points before the end of the regular season? Can Myles Brosnan hit 50?
St. Mark's junior forward Caiden Pellegrino (Uxbridge, Mass.) leads the region in points with 65, while Winchendon senior forward Charlie Puglisi is right behind him with 64.
Winchendon only has one game left against Mount St. Charles. While Puglisi has been so dominant that six points isn't out of the question, it's not likely.
Pellegrino has a real chance. The Lions face BB&N and Groton over the next two days. The Providence College commit posting five points in those two games is highly likely given that he's averaging nearly three points per game.
Brosnan is at 49 points, and Dexter has one game left with Brunswick, so it's likely. The Harvard commit would be the first defenseman to hit 50 or more points since Kimball Union's Andrew O'Sullivan (Boston, Mass.) in 2023-24.
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In terms of points per game for a defenseman, Brosnan's 1.75 is the highest since St. Mark's Michael Fisher (Westboro, Mass.) had a 1.79 in 2021-22. Fisher was picked in the third round of the 2022 NHL Draft.
One thing to remember with stats: They don't stop being counted once the playoffs start. Pellegrino, Puglisi and Brosnan should all be slated for a few more games once the playoffs begin, which should boost their totals even more.
