Eight of the 52 Americans selected in last week’s NHL draft were in their second or third years of eligibility for the selection process. The draft has been trending toward older players, especially in the later rounds, for the past few years.
The hometown Boston Bruins made four selections in the 2020 draft. All four players were Americans and the first two were second-year-eligible prospects. Of the 11 local players selected, three were in the second year of eligibility. The high-end players will continue to be selected in their first year of eligibility, but some hidden gems can be found as players mature. Boston Bruins forward Chris Wagner, Toronto Maple Leafs forward Jimmy Vesey and Arizona Coyotes forward Connor Garland are three local players in the NHL who were drafted in their second year of eligibility.
Scouting for the 2021 NHL Entry Draft will be particularly difficult because of disruptions to games forced by the coronavirus. NHL teams will have less to go on when it comes to players in their first year of eligibility than they would have in the past. The elite ’03s still will go first, but I’d expect a good number of ’01s and ’02s to be picked at the 2021 NHL draft.
A lot of these ’01s and ’02s are still undrafted because they chose to challenge themselves in the USHL instead of staying in prep, high school or Midget. There’s nothing wrong with the prep or high school route, but I firmly believe many junior players are continuously overlooked because they don’t get the ice time or put up the stats they would have had they stayed in high school, prep or Midget.
Here’s a look at second- and third-year-eligible American prospects who should be on the radars of NHL scouts as they evaluate the talent pool for the 2021 draft. Other second- and third-year-eligible players will step up and prove to be worthy of consideration, but these are my frontrunners prior to the junior season starting.
Forwards
1. Mark Estapa
Tri-City Storm, 1/13/02, LW, left shot, 6-1/185
NCAA commit: Michigan
Estapa struggled in his first year in the USHL, scoring only three goals and two assists in 45 games. Estapa isn’t the prettiest skater and his offensive skill is lacking. Dating back to his 14-U season, he’s never scored at over a point per game clip. However, I’ve always liked Estapa as a bottom-six forward who has a high compete level. He forechecks with tenacity, is reliable in his own zone, and can be heavy on pucks. A product of the Little Caesars youth organization, I believe he’ll see his production jump in his second full season with Tri-City. Further, I think scouts will see him get more ice time and see more of what I see in terms of his ability to fill a role as a bottom-six, tough, penalty-killing forward who helps his team win hockey games.
2. Ben Schoen
Youngstown Phantoms, 5/18/02, RW, right shot, 5-8/144
NCAA commit: Penn State
Schoen missed significant time during the 2019-20 season with an injury. Still, he scored six goals and 14 assists in 29 USHL games. That followed up a rookie season in Youngstown in which he potted six goals and added 22 helpers. The Little Caesars product lacks size, but his hockey sense and vision are elite. He’s skilled and has good agility, which allows him to be effective in small areas. I think Schoen will have a big year this season and will hear his name called in 2021.
3. Carter Mazur
Tri-City Storm, 3/28/02, LW, left shot, 5-11/155
NCAA commit: Michigan State
Mazur was a slick, goal-scoring winger at the Midget level with Little Caesars. For a multitude of reasons, he wasn’t able to replicate that in his first season in the USHL with Tri-City in 2019-20. He had just six goals and seven assists in 47 games. That being said, I firmly believe he’d have scored close to two points per game in New England prep or Minnesota high school. His speed and slick hands help him create on the rush, and he can beat defenders one-on-one. I also like that he plays with an edge, despite his lack of size. If his production jumps to close to a point per game in 2020-21, I could see an NHL team drafting him.
4. Jack Williams
Muskegon Lumberjacks, 3/2/02, RW, right shot, 5-11/160
NCAA commit: Northeastern
Williams, from Biddeford, Maine, scored six goals and seven assists in 44 games in 2019-20, his first full season in the USHL. He had two highly productive seasons at South Kent Selects Academy after a solid year of prep hockey at Berwick. Williams isn’t the best skater, but he’s a hard-nosed, north-south winger who can score. I believe he’ll see more ice time this season as he adjusts to the speed and pace of the junior game. That will afford him the opportunity to increase his production. I see him as a similar prospect to Alex Jefferies, who was drafted out of Gunnery just last week. I will argue with anyone that Williams would have been drafted had he spent 2019-20 in the prep circuit, as he’d have been a big-time scorer.
5. Alex Gaffney
Omaha Lancers, 6/25/02, LW, left shot, 5-7/160
NCAA commit: Harvard
Gaffney, who was just traded from the Muskegon Lumberjacks to the Omaha Lancers, is entering his third season in the USHL in 2020-21. The West Orange, N.J., native put up 14 goals and 19 assists in 47 games last season. That followed up a 13-goal campaign as a rookie in 2018-19. A product of the New Jersey Colonials youth organization, Gaffney is undersized, but he’s skilled and has above-average skating and offensive instincts. I think it’s an outside shot at best, but he should put up big numbers this season.
6. Josh Doan
Chicago Steel, 2/1/02, RW, right shot, 6-0/165
NCAA commit: Arizona State
Doan, a product of the Phoenix Junior Coyotes youth organization, scored five goals and nine assists in 45 USHL games with Chicago during 2019-20, his first in junior hockey. He’ll likely get more ice time in 2020-21 and should see an increase in his production. He has the bloodlines that intrigue NHL organizations. With all the high-end talent in Chicago, there will be plenty of eyes on him.
Defensemen
1. Donald Kempf
Muskegon Lumberjacks, 4/15/02, D, left shot, 6-1/180
NCAA commit: Cornell
Kempf is a solid hockey player. There’s nothing flashy about his game, but he’s smart, keeps it simple, and is reliable. The Chicago Mission product had 17 assists last season with Muskegon, his rookie year in the USHL. He’s not a skilled defender so his offensive numbers might never pop, but teams should value his strength, which is being responsible in his own zone. If there’s any player on this list who I believe should absolutely be drafted in 2021, it’s Kempf.
2. David Ma
Chicago Steel, 6/22/02, D, left shot, 5-11/190
NCAA commit: Princeton
Ma missed some key scouting events last season while with Shattuck-St. Mary’s due to suffering a lower-body injury. However, at national camp and in the Hlinka-Gretzky Cup, Ma showed off his hockey sense and ability to move pucks north. The Yonkers, N.Y., native is an extremely smart puck mover. He scored four goals and added 29 assists in 33 games at Shattuck last winter. This season, he’ll ply his trade in the USHL with Chicago.
3. Kennedy O’Connor
Omaha Lancers, 5/10/01, D, left shot, 6-1/185
NCAA commit: UMass
I’ve liked O’Connor for a couple of years now. He’s not gifted offensively, but he’s strong and steady. The West Springfield, Mass., native brings a physical element and a mean streak. On top of that, he’s a leader and will do the little things to win hockey games. I could see him getting a draft look as he plays his first year of junior hockey after starring in prep at Loomis Chaffee. In 32 games in 2019-20, he had three goals and 13 assists. There has to be a couple of NHL scouts who see his value as a shutdown defender.
4. Evan Bushy
Sioux City Musketeers, 3/26/02, D, left shot, 6-1/185
NCAA commit: St. Cloud
Bushy is a defensive defenseman who keeps it simple in his own zone. He has good size, closes quickly on opposing forwards, and shuts down passing and shooting lanes. Looking ahead to college and professional hockey, he projects as a physical, shutdown defender. In Minnesota high school last season, Bushy scored 14 goals and 24 assists in 25 games with Thief River Falls. He’ll make the jump to the USHL with Sioux City this season.
5. Hunter McDonald
Omaha Lancers, 5/11/02, D, left shot, 6-4/185
NCAA commit: Rensselaer
McDonald is an interesting prospect, as he showed some flashes while with Rochester Coalition during his Midget years. Last season was somewhat of a setback as he started the season in the USPHL NCDC with Rochester. After moving to Corpus Christi in the NAHL, things started to look up. He checks boxes for size, skating and reach defensively. If his decision-making and ability to think at pace improves like I think it will, he’ll be a NHL draft pick in 2021 or 2022.
6. D.J. Hart
Sioux City Musketeers, 2/23/02, D, right shot, 6-2/185
NCAA commit: Ohio State
Hart is a player who has raised his game over the past year. He checks boxes for size, strength and physicality. The Stamford, Conn., native has the ability to add an offensive element. In 2019-20 with North Jersey Avalanche 18-U, he scored at close to a point-per-game pace. This will be a significant year for him as he’ll be able to showcase his talent in front of scouts watching good hockey. Scouts aren’t as keen on players competing at the 18-U full-season level.
7. Dylan Abbott
Green Bay Gamblers, 11/26/01, D, left shot, 6-0/181
NCAA commit: Minnesota State
Abbott isn’t overly dynamic offensively, but he’s a mobile defender who makes smart outlet passes. His first touch was good in all my viewings of him in the NAHL with Fairbanks and at various league showcases. While scouts saw him last year, his exposure should be higher in the USHL with Green Bay. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was picked in the seventh round, if he has a successful season in 2020-21.
8. Brandon Chabrier
Sioux Falls Stampede, 7/19/02, D, right shot, 6-0/160
NCAA commit: Northeastern
Chabrier always has been a prospect who would show flashes of promise. When he committed to Northeastern a few years ago, it was known that he’d be a long-term project as he grows into his body and learns the intricacies of the game. His mobility and skill always have been good. He exceeded my expectations by sticking in Sioux Falls last winter. He scored a goal and had four assists in 39 games. I saw him this summer at the Battle of Boston and he looked to have taken another step in his game. He’s a player who scouts will notice and at least have to come up with reasons for why their teams shouldn’t select him. He spent his Bantam and Midget years with North Jersey Avalanche, Long Island Gulls and New Jersey Colonials.
9. Frank Djurasevic
Penticton Vees, 3/9/02, D, right shot, 6-2/190
Djurasevic has been a player who I’ve liked for a couple of years now. I think he took a big step up in 2019-20 with North Jersey Avalanche 18-U and Trinity-Pawling. He’ll be making the jump to junior hockey in 2020-21 with Penticton in the BCHL. The New Rochelle, N.Y., native has good size, skill and plays hard. His skating isn’t bad, but it’s an area that could use continued improvement. I’m not sure he’s a draftee, but there are plenty of exciting elements to his game that could make scouts in western Canada think twice.
Goaltenders
1. Grant Riley
Tri-City Storm, 8/28/02, G, catches left, 6-4/190
NCAA commit: Boston College
Riley has been one of my favorite goaltenders in the ’02 birth year for quite a while. The Rochester, N.Y., native had a .911 save percentage in 37 games with Janesville in the North American Hockey League during the 2019-20 season. He’ll be moving on to the USHL with Tri-City for this season. Riley checks boxes for size, technical skill and skating. Dating back to his time with the Rochester Coalition, he’s been able to steal games for his team. If he can become more consistent and avoid the occasional stinker, he should be off the board in the third or fourth round of the 2021 draft.
2. Aidan Campbell
Erie Otters, 8/22/02, G, catches left, 6-5/192
Campbell struggled in his first year in the Ontario Hockey League. In 26 appearances in 2019-20, the Cranberry Township, Pa., native had a .872 save percentage. He has good size and was a dominant goaltender at the Bantam and Midget levels. I was impressed with him in countless viewings with the Pittsburgh Penguins Elite and at USA Hockey national camps over the years. If he can show improvement this season, he’s a goaltender who should be considered at the 2021 draft table.
3. Colin Purcell
Youngstown Phantoms, 3/26/02, G, catches left, 6-7/189
NCAA Commit: UMass
Purcell has intriguing size at 6-foot-7. It’s helped him land spots with USA Hockey at the Hlinka-Gretzky Cup and a commitment to UMass. He’s certainly got the potential to blossom into a good goaltender. That being said, he’s never had a save percentage north of .900 since his 15 Pure season in 2017-18. That statistic is almost certainly what kept him from being drafted in 2020. With his size, if he has a good season in Youngstown in 2020-21, he’ll certainly get another chance to hear his name called.
